I really don’t like doing season previews. They just don’t get me fired up. Still, I know you lot want to see what I’m thinking about the 2012 NRL season so here we are.
This season is going to be a close one. The worst team in the comp probably won’t be that bad, and they won’t be the worst team because of the talent they have, it will probably all come down to coaching, injuries and a bit of luck.
A few things I think we will see happen this season…
I think Petero Civoniceva will retire mid season. I think Brian Smith will get punted and Matthew Elliott will somehow find himself coaching an NRL team again. I think we will see a blow up at the Dogs at board level and we might even see a few more English players heading our way for the 2013 season.
So, what about the NRL itself?
New Zealand Warriors
They lost the best coach they ever have, then allowed their halfback to sign with another club ahead of time. We know talent isn’t an issue at the Warriors, all three of their grades made Grand Finals last year, so this season will come down to coaching.
I don’t rate Brian McLennan as a coach but he is won’t have any problems motivating the side. The Warriors should make the finals but I think we are going to see moments where they just look like they are being out coached. Badly. That won’t get better with time either.
Cronulla Sharks
Its a big year for the Sharks are they look to secure their long term future in Cronulla. The Sharks lost a bit of grunt up front but they did pick up Todd Carney. How much value he will add to their lineup is anyone’s guess.
While I don’t think the Sharks will be terrible, I just think they won’t have the attack to match it with most sides in the competition. I think they will compete in most games, however they just don’t have enough talent to put too many points on the board. I can’t see them making the top 8.
Melbourne Storm
Last season the Storm did very well but eventually run out of steam by the time the finals hit. because of salary cap pressures (ironic!) they were probably forced to give more first grade time to a few of their players last season than would have been ideal.
That short term pain will have long term gain however. The likes of Gareth Widdop, Jesse Bromwich and Matt Duffie will be better for that season of first grade footy where the club really relied on them to perform. The additions of Hoffman and Chambers will give them a bit of depth they lacked last season.
I expect the Storm to be one of the teams to beat this year. It wouldn’t surprise me if Bellemy rotated his squad a little as the season draws on, trying to get rid of the fatigue factor coming into the finals.
Wests Tigers
I really like what the Tigers did with their lineup. There were no doubt issues there that they needed to get rid of and I get the feeling now that their focus on performance will be much greater than it has been over the last few seasons.
The Wests Tigers biggest problem come finals time has always been the fact that their forwards were some of the softest in the competition. That won’t be the case this season after the recruitment of Adam Blair, who is flat out a winner, Matt Bell from the Panthers is a handy addition while I have high hopes this year for youngster Matt Groat, who in the games I’ve seen him play looks like he could be something a bit special.
Give Benji Marshall a top forward pack to play behind, and you end up with a true Premiership contender. They are a top four team.
Penrith Panthers
A lot of people are picking the Panthers as wooden spooners and I can’t blame them. Look at the last few seasons, we’ve been terrible!
The Panthers didn’t really recruit any headliners (Their salary cap situation is a mess thanks to the previous management) but they did add a bit of depth in their forwards. Their biggest change is obviously in the coaching staff, where Ivan Cleary takes over, and in the front office.
Penrith have some very handy performers. Jennings is a game breaking center, Michael Gordon an Origin quality winger or fullback who is a top goal kicker. Luke Walsh is a very good halfback, Luke Lewis a regular with the Kangaroo’s, Sam McKendry for the Kiwi’s….Penrith’s problem has never been talent, it has been their coaching and training.
While this season is less about results as it is lifting general standards at the club, I think Penrith has the talent and the juniors on the fringe of first grade to get themselves into the finals this season.
Brisbane Broncos
They are a young team and if they keep taking forward steps, they will be an awesome side in a few years time. The loss of Darren Lockyer is a big one but I think Peter Wallace is a very handy replacement for him, it is just a matter of getting him to take a more dominant role in attack.
For the Bronco’s its all about their youngsters maturing as first grade footballers. Not being able to rely on Lockyer will be a bit of a shock but I think they will manage alright, in the regular season at least.
I actually think that their youngsters will perform so well that we will see Petero Covoniceva retire mid season. I thought he was a poor buy for the Broncos and I think by mid season he will be struggling to keep his place in the team, even on the bench.
Gold Coast Titans
They were horrible last year and none of their big name players performed at all. They went out on a big recruitment drive and picked up some very handy players, but for me, it all comes back to one major flaw.
The Titans forward pack is so soft, its embarrassing. When they come up against the better packs in the competition they don’t stand a chance. I don’t think they have had enough change in the forwards to overcome their weaknesses. I can’t see them making the finals this year.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Michael Maguire is the best coach Souths have had for…..well in my lifetime at least. With him in charge their preparation, fitness and discipline will be top shelf.
This one is really simple. For all of the positive things I could say about the Bunnies, they simply do not have a pair of halves that can make any impact on the NRL at all. If you list all the halves pairings in the competition, how do untested youngster Adam Reynolds and John Sutton stack up?
Unless South Sydney conjure up a halfback out of somewhere, they are no chance of making the finals, let alone winning the premiership.
St George/Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons had issues last year and who can blame them. Their coach obviously ditched them, a few of their highest profile players ditched them, I’m not surprised how some of their players reacted to the situation considering many of the blokes that busted their arses to win a title for these guys were of no consideration to anyone that left.
The Dragons now have to rebuild and I think Jamie Soward really needs to step up another level and take a real leadership role with this team. For a young bloke, he is already asked to do so much, but of he can become a real leader on and off the field for the Dragons, it might just be enough to get the established players to go with him, and drag along a few of their very handy youngsters.
One problem I see them having is at halfback. Ben Hornby has been a liability for the Dragons for a long time now. He adds nothing at all to the side in attack and it puts all the pressure on Soward to come up with something. I’d like to see the Dragons try and get another halfback in there with Soward but that would be relying on a youngster that will bring its own issues.
The Dragons will be in with a shot to make the finals just based on their ability to play percentage football so well. I don’t see them as true contenders though simply because they don’t have enough in attack to beat the tops sides when it matters.
Canberra Raiders
Terry Campese was a dominant play maker before his injury in last 2010 and recovery from that injury basically ruined his 2011 season. Looking at the Raiders side, I honestly believe they have the lineup and enough youngsters on the fringe of first grade to be a true premiership threat. I have one major concern though…
I think this team gave up on their coach in 2011. You can blame injuries all you like, but this side looked so bad as the season went on that I wouldn’t have been surprised if coach David Furner decided to move on.
Similarly to Penrith in recent years, I don’t think talent is an issue with this team. Injuries are a concern but they have so much depth. Their forward pack should be dominant, they have a bunch of halves that have proven they are up to first grade standards, they even have a few game breakers in the side. Hopefully I’m wrong about the coaching situation.
Sydney Roosters
This is how I think the Roosters season plays out. They start off slow, but nothing to panic about. They finally confirmed they have signed Sonny Bill Williams for next season and keep trying to push Braith Anasta out the door at the same time.
The teams form drops right off and Brian Smith gets fired. Matthew Elliott takes over the coaching reigns but the club looks to get a different coach for the 2013 season. This all ends in them missing the finals and their 27 fans are really sad about it.
Newcastle Knights
Wayne Bennett’s challenge of counting all of his money is well under way. His love sick puppy, Darius Boyd follows him up to Newcastle, and this brights forward an issue I see with the Knights.
They should be good, but Kurt Gidley in the halves has never worked in the past. He simply isn’t the best player at any position he plays at the club.Ryan Stig is a better option for the Knights at five-eight than Gidley is.
Once again this is a case of better coaching bringing out the best in players that had talent anyway. A lot of pressure will be on Jarrod Mullen who has been very average over the last few years.
Canterbury Bulldogs
Des takes over a pretty average team, but he has shown that he can make a side like that play above themselves. I think we will basically see him do what he did at Manly for the last few years.
He will take a side that on paper migth not look crash hot and he will make them a contender. Remember, this is his first season in charge, its next year they will really be top contenders. This year though, they will be there or there abouts.
Parramatta Eels
Chris Sandow is a great signing and will finally give the Eels a halfback that can control the side and lead the around the park. The thing that worries me is….everything else about the Eels just looks like what they tried to serve up last year, and that didn’t work!
I think Kearney is too worried about his job security and his win loss record to put faith in youngsters and get rid of some of the established players. The Eels desperately need to blood some backs, and they just don’t seem ready to try a few things.
Ask any Eels fan, they will tell you that they got sick of seeing back rowers play in the centers last year. If we see more of the same, Kearney has to go.
North Queensland Cowboys
They are heading in the right direction, I just don’t think they are ready yet. I also think that injuries will be their biggest issue this season, and that has been a problem for them for a while anyway.
Thurston at five-eight won’t miss a beat and Matthew Bowen is one of the best players in the game. I worry about their consistency up front though and losing Thurston during the State Of Origin series kills them.
Manly Sea Eagles
They had a terrible off season and their pre season was ruined by the World Club Challenge farce. However I think they have brought back enough of last years Grand Final winning team to be a force again this year.
Geoff Toovey was a very successful lower grade coach so him being in charge won’t be an issue. I think a lot of other teams have improved since last season, and that will be their biggest challenge.
My Ladder Prediction
Melbourne Storm
West Tigers
Brisbane Broncos
Newcastle Knights
Canterbury Bulldogs
Manly Sea Eagles
Penrith Panthers
New Zealand Warriors
—–
St George/Illawarra Dragons
Canberra Raiders
North Queensland Cowboys
Cronulla Sharks
Parramatta Eels
Gold Coast Titans
Sydney Roosters
South Sydney Rabbitohs
The 2012 NRL Premiers Are…
The Melbourne Storm.
I know its probably a boring pick but with all of the talent they have at that club on and off the field, as well as the youngsters that got a lot of experience last season, I just can’t look past the purple people eaters from down south.
